Sounding VI

Observations on the American Empire's Fall....or Rise

Many are the energetic opinions trumpeted by the commentariat on the supposed decline of the US. Others, no less stridently, predict China's imminent decline and a resurgent America bolstered by preeminence in artificial intelligence.

In reaching their conflicting conclusions, the two sides often rely on different facts, or interpret the same facts in an entirely distinct manner. Even so, both camps of would-be prophets often unearth the history of the Roman Empire to bolster their conclusions. As if recounting the demise of a largely pre-Christian Mediterranean political empire that fell 1550 years ago readily deciphers the fate of the American empire, such as it is.

Even if the logic of such a comparison was compelling, what of the British Empire's relevance? What of the Byzantine or Venetian empires? Or the Incan? Why is the example of Rome uniquely foretelling? The answer is far from obvious.

Yet there are lessons on every page of the historical ledger, and viewing the Roman Empire from 2026 is useful in a certain light. Specifically, despite countless books, articles and learned conferences on the topic, there is little agreement about why the Roman Empire fell.

Arm-chair prophets of American destiny would do well to consider Der Fall Roms (The Fall of Rome), a book by German historian Alexander Demandt published in 1984, which records all of the explanations historians have proposed for the Roman Empire's disintegration.

He found 210 different explanations, later augmented by 17 additional factors incorporated into the 2014 revised edition of Der Fall Roms.

The original list of the 210 reasons for the fall of Rome:

1.    Abolition of gods
2.    Abolition of rights
3.    Absence of character 
4.    Absolutism 
5.    Agrarian question 
6.    Agrarian slavery 
7.    Anarchy 
8.    Anti-Germanism 
9.    Apathy 
10.  Aristocracy 
11.  Asceticism 
12.  Attack of the Germans 
13.  Attack of the Huns 
14.  Attack of riding nomads 
15.  Backwardness in science 
16.  Bankruptcy 
17.  Barbarization 
18.  Bastardization
19.  Blockage of land by large landholders 
20.  Blood poisoning 
21.  Bolshevization 
22.  Bread and circuses 
23.  Bureaucracy  
24.  Byzantinism 
25.  Capillarite sociale
26.  Capitals, change of 
27.  Caste system 
28.  Celibacy 
29.  Centralization 
30.  Childlessness
31.  Christianity 
32.  Citizenship, granting of 
33.  Civil war 
34.  Climatic deterioration
35.  Communism 
36. Complacency 
37. Concatenation of misfortunes
38. Conservatism
39. Capitalism 
40. Corruption 
41.  Cosmopolitanism 
42.  Crisis of legitimacy 
43.  Culinary excess 
44.  Cultural neurosis 
45.  Decentralization 
46.  Decline of Nordic character 
47.  Decline of the cities 
48.  Decline of the Italian population 
49.  Deforestation 
50.  Degeneration 
51.  Degeneration of the intellect 
52.  Demoralization 
53.  Depletion of mineral resources 
54.  Despotism 
55.  Destruction of environment 
56.  Destruction of peasantry 
57.  Destruction of political process 
58.  Destruction of Roman influence 
59.  Devastation
60.  Differences in wealth Disarmament 
61.  Differences in wealth Disarmament 
62.  Disillusion with stated goals of empire
63.  Division of empire 
64.  Division of labor 
65.  Earthquakes 
66.  Egoism 
67.  Egoism of the state 
68.  Emancipation of slaves 
69.  Enervation 
70.  Epidemics 
71.  Equal rights, granting of 
72.  Eradication of the best 
73.  Escapism 
74.  Ethnic dissolution 
75.  Excessive aging of population 
76.  Excessive civilization 
77.  Excessive culture 
78.  Excessive foreign infiltration 
79.  Excessive freedom 
80.  Excessive urbanization 
81.  Expansion 
82.  Exploitation 
83.  Fear of life 
84.  Female emancipation 
85.  Feudalization 
86.  Fiscalism 
87.  Gladiatorial system 
88.  Gluttony 
89.  Gout 
90.  Hedonism 
91.  Hellenization 
92.  Heresy 
93.  Homosexuality 
94.  Hothouse culture 
95.  Hubris 
96.  Hypothermia 
97.  Immoderate greatness 
98.  Imperialism 
99.  Impotence
100.  Impoverishment
101.   Imprudent policy toward buffer states
102.   Inadequate educational system
103.   Indifference
104.   Individualism
105.   Indoctrination
106.   Inertia 
107.   Inflation 
108.   Intellectualism 
109.   Integration, weakness of 
110.   Irrationality 
111.   Jewish influence 
112.   Lack of leadership 
113.   Lack of male dignity 
114.   Lack of military recruits 
115.   Lack of orderly imperial  succession 
116.   Lack of qualified workers 
117.   Lack of rainfall 
118.   Lack of religiousness 
119.   Lack of seriousness 
120.   Large landed properties 
121.   Lead poisoning 
122.   Lethargy 
123.   Leveling, cultural 
124.   Leveling, social 
125.   Loss of army discipline 
126.   Loss of authority 
127.   Loss of energy 
128.   Loss of instincts 
129.   Loss of population 
130.   Luxury 
131.   Malaria 
132.   Marriages of convenience 
133.   Mercenary system 
134.   Mercury damage 
135.   Militarism 
136.   Monetary economy 
137.   Monetary greed 
138.   Money, shortage of 
139.   Moral decline 
140.   Moral idealism 
141.   Moral materialism 
142.   Mystery religions 
143.   Nationalism of Rome's subjects 
144.   Negative selection 
145.   Orientalization 
146.   Outflow of gold 
147.   Over refinement 
148.   Pacifism 
149.   Paralysis of will 
150.   Paralysization 
151.   Parasitism 
152.   Particularism 
153.   Pauperism 
154.   Plagues 
155.   Pleasure seeking 
156.   Plutocracy 
157.   Polytheism 
158.   Population pressure 
159.   Precociousness 
160.   Professional army 
161.   Proletarianization 
162.   Prosperity 
163.   Prostitution 
164.   Psychoses 
165.   Public baths 
166.   Racial degeneration 
167.   Racial discrimination 
168.   Racial suicide 
169.   Rationalism 
170.   Refusal of military service 
171.   Religious struggles and schisms 
172.   Rentier mentality 
173.   Resignation 
174.   Restriction to profession 
175.   Restriction to the land 
176.   Rhetoric 
177.   Rise of uneducated masses 
178.   Romantic attitudes to peace 
179.   Ruin of middle class 
180.   Rule of the world 
181.   Semieducation 
182.   Sensuality 
183.   Servility 
184.   Sexuality 
185.   Shamelessness 
186.   Shifting of trade routes 
187.   Slavery 
188.   Slavic attacks 
189.   Socialism (of the state) 
190.   Soil erosion 
191.   Soil exhaustion 
192.   Spiritual barbarism 
193.   Stagnation 
194.   Stoicism
195.   Stress 
196.   Structural weakness 
197.   Superstition 
198.   Taxation, pressure of 
199.   Terrorism 
200.   Tiredness of life 
201.   Totalitarianism 
202.   Treason 
203.   Tristesse 
204.   Two-front war 
205.   Underdevelopment
206.   Useless eaters 
207.   Usurpation of all powers by state 
208.   Vain gloriousness 
209.   Villa economy 
210.   Vulgarization

If there is such a startlingly vast range of reasons for the fall of Rome, there must be cause for humility and caution in prognosticating how the American nation is, or isn't, doomed.

How many are those who truly understand a long vanished ancient civilization, let alone their own?